Before the war it was fairly clear that the scope of
large-scale settlement was limited. The first difficulty is that of
finance. The cost per family is high, and there is usually an initial
period of several years before the settler becomes self-supporting.
Even after this he can only repay the capital spent on his behalf over
a long period of years, and there is always the very real danger of
overloading him with a burden of long-term debt. On the other hand,
if he does not make a considerable contribution towards this capital
expenditure, the cost becomes prohibitive. Again, the only practical
form of settlement dealing with large numbers is agricultural, associated
in some cases with allied industries, As a producer of primary products,
the settler is dependent on world markets, and since the last war, the
experience of agricultural producers has fluctuated between a short
boom and a long and very deep depression. It is quite impossible to
forecast what may happen to primary producers after the present war.
Some yesrs may intervene before a safe estimate can be made. At all
events, there will be great uncertainty for some time. It will be unsafe
to embark on big schemes of land settlement without obtaining the best
advise obtainable, and it may be doubted whether the economist will
be able to give a positive opinion. Two conditions will most probably
have to be satisfied: first, a low capital cost per family; and second,
the careful selection as settlers of persons who are hereditary agriculturalists,
or who have had a very thorough training. The transfer of peasants from
one European area to another may, however, be a practical proposition,
when it would not be feasible to transfer refugees with no agricultural
traditions to countries where the climat and other conditions are different
from those to which they have been accustomed. While, therefore, big-scale
settlement can make a contribution to the general sclution, I am very
doubtful whether, during the years immediately following the war, it
can play a substantial part, except in the case of peasant refugees.
So far as Jews are concerned, it must certainly be preceded by a thorough
training, and accompanied by a determination to stick to the land.
An important exception must be made in the case of
settlement in Palestine. There the scope is not confined to agricultural
settlement, and even in the agricultural field religious and racial
fervour, supported by first-class organisation, has achieved a very
large measure Of success. Finance hitherto has not been a difficulty,
since the community as a whole has been willing to provide the necessary
funds on a very generous scale, and will no doubt be willing to do so
in the future. The difficulty in Palestine arises from the fact that
absorption is determined by political and economic factors. It is to
be hoped that, so far as these will allow, Palestine will make its full
contribution.