“The UK government informed the Panel [that monitors Iran's compliance with the UN sanctions regime] on 20 April 2015 that it ‘is aware of an active Iranian nuclear procurement network which has been associated with Iran's Centrifuge Technology Company (TESA) and Kalay Electric Company (KEC).’” Both companies are under sanctions because of their suspected links to banned Iranian nuclear activities.
The existence of this network reinforces fears that Iran cannot be trusted to comply with the proposed nuclear deal. If true, the report also contradicts claims by the Obama administration that Tehran has complied with the terms of the November 2013 agreement between Iran and the six powers requiring reductions in its nuclear activities, including enrichment. (Reuters, April 30, 2015)
The United States Senate passed the Corker-Menendez Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act with an overwhelming majority (98-1) on May 7, 2015. This approval brought U.S. lawmakers one step closer to being able to approve or reject any nuclear deal forged between Iran and the P5+1. To view the final text of the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, please click here.
Contrary to the claims of the Iranian government, IAEA head Yukiya Amano stated on May 12, 2015, that the framework being considered by the P5+1 and Iran provides for IAEA access to Iranian nuclear sites for inspections.
Adding to the general skepticism of whether Iran can be trusted to fulfill the obligations of a nuclear agreement, Czech officials reported in May 2015 that earlier in the year they had blocked a shipment of nuclear materials bound for Iran. The Iranian government attempted to make the purchase of U.S. made Howden CKD Compressors from a third party in the Czech Republic, but Czech authorities were alerted to the deal and prevented it from happening. Authorities were tipped off when the transport company provided false documentation accompanying the shipment in attempts to hide it's origin and destination. The estimated value of the thwarted transaction was $61 million. (Reuters, May 13, 2015)
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei referred to the P5+1 requests for interviews with Iranian nuclear scientists as “unreasonable demands,” on May 19, stating that Iran, “will never yield to pressure,” and “will not give access to it's nuclear scientists.”(Reuters, May 19, 2015) In a broadcast on Iranian state television Khamenei said that allowing interviews with Iranian nuclear scientists would be a violation of the scientists individual privacy, referring to the interviews as interrogations. The P5+1 and the IAEA have continually asserted that under any nuclear deal they must be provided access to Iranian nuclear scientists.
Russian officials voiced their opposition to the automatic reimposition of international sanctions if Iran is caught cheating in regards to elements of the proposed nuclear deal. Russias Ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin, bluntly stated that “there can be no automaticity, none whatsoever.”(Bloomberg, May 13, 2015)
In response to Israel's skepticism and disapproval of the framework nuclear deal reached between the P5+1 and Iran, the United States and Israel entered unnoficial negotiations in mid-May 2015 aimed at providing the Israeli military with additional U.S. military equipment. U.S. officials announced on May 20 that they had signed a deal to sell Israel $1.8 billion in precision guided munitions, large and small bombs, and amunition. As a part of the deal Israel will also receive 3,000 Hellfire missiles that were supposed to be delivered in 2014, but were postponed due to Operation Protective Edge. Saudi Arabia will also receive 10 Seahawk helicopters from the United States as a part of this reassurance deal surrounding the framework agreement with Iran.
North Korean officials including nuclear experts and defense officials made their third visit to Iran in May 2015, amid reports that the two countries were forging ballistic and nuclear ties. The dissident group NCRI alleged that the North Korean officials were allowed access to Iranian nuclear sites and held meetings with Iranian nuclear officials and scientists, some of whom the IAEA had been denied access to in the past.
An IAEA report released in May 2015 unsurprisingly claimed that certain key questions still had not been answered by the Iranian regime, leaving a large part of the agreement essentially stalled. The IAEA still had not recieved adequate information to assess whether or not Iranian scientists had worked on nuclear arms; information that it was supposed to have been provided with over 9 months prior. The IAEA report for May 2015 detailed how the organization remained, “concerned about the possible existence in Iran of undisclosed nuclear-related activities involving military-related organizations, including activities related to the development of a nuclear payload for missiles.” (AP, May 29, 2015)
Throwing a wrench in the wheel of negotiations, on May 29, 2015, it was revealed via the IAEA's report for May 2015 that the Iranian stockpile of nuclear fuel had experienced a 20% increase during the previous 18 months. Although the IAEA inspectors noted the increase in nuclear material, they also stated in the report that there was no evidence that Iran was racing towards a bomb, and that Iranian nuclear facilities that may give them the capability to develop a bomb are non-operational. The report also clarified that certain aspects of the Iranian nuclear program have been frozen or rolled back. U.S. State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf held a press conference on July 2, in which she clarified the findings of the report. When asked if the increase in the Iranian nuclear stockpile would complicate negotiations, Harf quickly responded that it would have no such effect, and said that officials at the State Department were in fact “perplexed” by the findings of the report. She explained that officials in Washington were not worried about the number, because the Iranians just had to be below a certain number when the deal is officially put in place, and until then it was fine for their stockpile numbers to fluctuate. To read the full IAEA report released on May 29, 2015, click here.
A “snapback” of UN sanctions was agreed to by the P5+1 on May 31, 2015, answering the question of what would occur if Iran were to be caught cheating a final deal and clearing a major obstacle to reaching a nuclear accord. The nations agreed that if Iran were to be caught engaging in any activities that could be considered “cheating,” while the deal is in place, it would mean the reimposition of lifted UN sanctions against the country. If Iran were to be caught cheating, under the agreement the situation would be evaluated by a panel including representatives from the P5+1 and Iran. If in any case Iran is found incompliant with the deal by the IAEA, the P5+1 agreed that UN sanctions would be automatically reimposed. (Reuters, May 31, 2015)
During the negotiations Iran continued to work on technology that could be applied to nuclear weaponry, according to a secret report produced by the Pentagon in January 2015 but not released until June. The Pentagon report reached the conclusion that, “covert [Iranian nuclear] activities appear to be continuing unabated, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, and Yemen.” (Bloomberg, June 3, 2015)
Confirming that Iran had little intention of honoring a nuclear agreement from the begining, the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) issued a report in June 2015 showing that Iran had produced four tons of enriched uranium since the interim deal came into effect in January 2014. Under the interim deal this uranium was to be converted into an oxidized form that is not easily weaponizable, and according to the ISIS report only 5% of this newly produced uranium had been converted into uranium oxide. The report revealed that between November 2014 and June 2015 Iran had not bothered to convert any uranium into uranium oxide, thwarting their responsibilities per the interim agreement.
The UN Committee on Iran Sanctions questioned whether countries were simply ignoring Iranian violations of sanctions for the sake of preserving the possibility of a final deal in June 2015. A report issued by the committee presented a whitewashing of Iranian sanctions violations, including violations of travel restrictions imposed on Iranian officials, banking activity outside Iran related to nuclear procurement, and arms purchases. Even though Iran violated the stipulations of international sanctions in public multiple times since the Committee on Iran Sanctions most recent report, no countries reported any of these violations of sanctions during that same period. According to the report, “The current situation with reporting could reflect a general reduction of procurement activities by the Iranian side or a political decision by some member states to refrain from reporting to avoid a possible negative impact on ongoing negotiations.” (The Tower, June 9, 2015)To read the full report, click here.
The United States Government Accountability Office (GAO) published a report in June 2015 that demonstrated how the United States State Department had been severely falling behind when it came to reporting Iranian violations of U.S. and internationally imposed sanctions. The report detailed that the State Department was at times more than three years late in reporting sanctions violations, with an example given of sanctions violations that occured in 2011 not being reported to Congress until December 2014. The Government Accountability Office concluded in their report that, “[the] State [Department] is falling further and further behind in providing the reports and is now juggling a backlog of draft reports at different stages of that process.” To read the full report, click here.
In mid-June 2015, Iran's parliament approved draft legislation that would bar international inspectors from it's military sites, effectively solidifying Khamenei's statements that he would not allow inspections. The bill also asserts the Iranian idea that all sanctions on Iran should be lifted on the day that a deal is signed. International actors expressed concern that a final nuclear deal would not be able to be reached if Iran were to not allow inspections of their nuclear facilities.
According to the U.S. State Department's 2014 Report on Global Terrorism, Iran's support for terrorism through 2014 was “undiminished”. The report cited Iran's continued support of the Hezbollah terror organization, and Assad's regime forces, as disturbing examples of Iran's continued support of terrorist activities. The report designated Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism, as in years past. (The Wall Street Journal, June 19, 2015)
Coming in to the last week before the “final” deadline to reach a comprehensive nuclear deal, Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei appeared on Iranian state television and clarified his demands and “red lines” when dealing with the P5+1 negotiators. These demands included, as before, that all sanctions against Iran be lifted as soon as a nuclear accord is signed, and that international inspectors receive no inspection access to Iranian nuclear facilities. During the speech Khamenei also stated that “freezing Iran’s [nuclear] research and development for a long time, like 10 or 12 years, is not acceptable.” (Foreign Policy, June 23, 2015)
Five members of President Obama's trusted inner circle of Iran advisers wrote an open letter to the President, which was released to the public on June 25, 2015.
In the letter they cautioned that the likely deal would possibly fall short of what the Obama Administration may consider a “good agreement”. The officials made themselves clear, stating that in their opinions, “the agreement will not prevent Iran from having a nuclear weapons capability. It will not require the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear enrichment infrastructure... The agreement does not purport to be a comprehensive strategy towards Iran. It does not address Iran’s support for terrorist organizations (like Hezbollah and Hamas), its interventions in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen (its “regional hegemony”), its ballistic missile arsenal, or its oppression of its own people.” (The Washington Institute, June 25, 2015) In addition to criticizing the emerging deal, the letter laid out five minimum requirements that Iran must meet and/or agree to before a deal is to be signed. These requirements include that strict limits be placed on Iranian centrifuge research & development, IAEA inspectors be granted frequent and effective access to Iranian nuclear facilities,sanctions relief be based on Iran's cooperation with it's obligations, and an effective mechanism for enforcing consequences of sanctions violations be established. To read the full letter, please click here.
With no great breakthrough in the final hours, the nuclear negotiations between the P5+1 and Iran were once again extended, this time only for one week. The negotiators announced the last-minute extension late on the deadline of June 30th, and President Obama stated that the United States was willing to “walk away” from the negotiating table if a deal could not be reached within the extended time frame.
Official representatives of the negotiating teams announced that they would know with certainy within days whether a deal could possibly be reached.
The Islamic Republic of Iran received a 13-ton hoard of gold, worth close to $500 million, that was being held up by sanctions against the country on July 2, 2015. The gold had been purchased prior to the imposition of international sanctions against Iran, and had been stored in South Africa since 2013. The return of the gold reportedly had little to do with the nuclear negotiations, and was worked out in a sideline deal.
On July 5 John Kerry stated during a press conference that, “at this point negotiations could go either way. If hard choices get made in the next couple of days and made quickly, we could get an agreement this week. But if they are not made, we will not.” According to official sources, sanctions relating to the Iranian ballistic missile program were one of the main issues holding up the negotiations during the final week. (CNN, July 5, 2015) Iranian negotiators pushed for the complete lifting of the UN Arms Embargo against Iran during the final days of this round of negotiations.
When a deal was not reached within the one week extension, the parties once again extended the JPOA and negotiations, this time for only three days. With the new deadline of June 10th in place,
U.S. officials clarified that they were more worried about the content and quality of the deal rather than the timeline. The extension was met with opposition in Washington and Tehran, with some U.S. government officials advising that Washington abandon diplomacy, repeating the sentiment that no deal is better than a bad deal. This deadline was also not met, with John Kerry stating that the negotiators needed at least the weekend to continue discussions. Because the July 10th deadline was not met, under the Corker-Menendez Iran Agreement Review Act lawmakers in the United States now had 60 days to review and lobby for or against any deal that is reached, instead of 30.