Israeli Gains in the
Second Lebanon War
(Updated December 2006)
Both Israel and Hezbollah declared victory
following the war in July-August 2006. It
is too early to assess the full impact of
the war, however, as the outcome will depend
on what happens in the coming months as we
see whether, for example, UN
Security Council Resolution 1701 is fully implemented, whether Hezbollah is able to rearm, and whether the
Lebanese people ultimately embrace Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as a hero or a villain.
The conventional first impression was that Hezbollah won the war by surviving and demonstrating
that it had the will and the capability to
fight Israel to a standoff. But the emerging “big
picture” suggests Hezbollah was seriously
damaged both physically and politically and
that while Israel did not achieve the decisive
victory many expected, it did improve its
strategic position.
While initially making bold claims about
Hezbollah’s achievements, the postwar
reality forced Nasrallah to publicly admit
that kidnapping the Israeli soldiers and
provoking a war was an error in judgment.
He said that he would not have authorized
the operation if he had known the extent
of the catastrophe that it would cause.
Although Israel could not
prevent the launching of missiles, it did
severely degrade Hezbollah capabilities. The majority of the long-range
missiles and a partial stock of Hezbollah’s
Katyusha rockets were destroyed. In fact,
after the war it was disclosed that the Israeli
Air Force destroyed 59 intermediate and long-range
missile launchers during a 34-minute raid
on the second day of the war. The July 13
strike on Iranian-made Zelzal and Fajr missiles
prevented Hezbollah from
carrying out its threats to attack central
Israel.
Hezbollah no longer controls southern Lebanon
and it is the Lebanese army that now patrols
the frontier. Though obligated to do this
under UN
Security Council Resolution 1559,
the Lebanese government had shown neither
the will nor the ability to deploy its forces
prior to the war.
The new international military
force being deployed to assist the Lebanese
army represents a dramatic
upgrade of UNIFIL forces,
which previously had neither the capability
nor the mandate to monitor the border and
enforce UN resolutions. Though it remains
to be seen if the international force will
use its authority to prevent Hezbollah from
rearming or resuming attacks, the participating
countries have indicated a willingness to
do so.
Now that Israel no longer
faces a hostile terrorist army on its border,
its citizens in the north are safer.
Another positive outcome
of the war was to further weaken Syrian influence
in the country, which was partly exercised
through Hezbollah.
It also reduced Syria’s
ability to threaten Israel indirectly through
its Lebanese proxy.
To the extent Hezbollah is
viewed as having lost the war, it also represents
a defeat for Iran, which armed, financed
and trained its terrorist army.
Many in the Lebanese Parliament and government
are requesting an investigation into the
circumstances that led to the war, which
they are pursuing because of their anger
over Hezbollah’s actions and the widespread
perception the war was a disaster for Lebanon .
Hezbollah has
also suffered a serious setback in its principal
goal of establishing an Iranian-style radical
Islamic theocracy in Lebanon. Opposition
to the radical Shiites has strengthened the
commitment of other communities to support
democracy.
Though unlikely in the short-term, the
reduction of Syrian and radical Islamic influence
in Lebanon creates a possibility that otherwise
did not exist for peace between the governments
of Israel and Lebanon .
Hezbollah’s actions were openly criticized
by several Arab states and were supported
only by the Palestinians, Syrians and Iranians. Hezbollah also received unprecedented criticism
from the Arab press. For example, Saudi columnist
Muhammad Al-Seif wrote in the Saudi daily
Al-Iqtisadiyya: “The war currently
being waged in Lebanon has shown that many
of our Arab intellectuals have a serious
problem [in defining] the criteria for victory
and defeat. Some of them are still convinced
that Hezbollah, despite its losses, has brought
a humiliating defeat upon Israel and has
shattered the myth of Israel as an invincible
state. The problem repeats itself, in the
exact same form, in every war fought by the
Arabs. The criterion for victory is [as follows]:
As long as the emblem, or the heroic commander,
still lives, [the outcome is pronounced to
be] a victory – regardless of the consequences
of the war for the peoples [in terms of damage
to] property and loss of lives and capabilities....I
do not think that Hezbollah gained any victory
at all.”
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