Iran’s Interest
in Gaza War
(Updated January 2009)
One of the most serious
consequences of the Gaza
war has been the world’s distraction
from the broader strategic threat posed by Iran.
While international attention focuses on Gaza,
Iran continues to work illegally on its nuclear
program. This is one good reason for Iran
to discourage Hamas from
accepting a cease-fire.
According to a report submitted
to French President Nicolas Sarkozy in the
last days of 2008, Iran will be a member
of the nuclear club by the end of 2011, at
the latest, and 2009 may be the last
chance to prevent Iran from developing a
bomb (Asharq
Al-Awsat, January 7, 2009). The CIA also
believes Iran is progressing toward a bomb.
Outgoing CIA director Michael Hayden said, “I’m
amazed Iran is willing to run the costs they
are running if they are not trying to keep
the option open for a nuclear weapon” (AP,
January 16, 2009).
Ending the fighting
in Gaza will not slow Iran’s steady
progress toward joining the nuclear club.
The outcome of the war may, however, influence
how determined the Arab states will be to
resist the Iranian nuclear program and whether
they will have faith in America’s
commitment to its allies, and President-elect
Obama’s stated intention to prevent
Iran from obtaining a bomb.
Iran shares
the Hamas goal
of destroying Israel and has provided the
group with weapons (the advanced Grad rockets
now allowing Hamas to target major cities
such as Beersheva), training (in Lebanon, Syria and Iran)
and money ($20-$35 million annually).
It was partly due to this support from Iran
that Hamas was able to stage a coup and take
over Gaza from its rivals in Fatah.
While some members of Hamas are
seeking a halt to the current violence, the
Islamic Republic has threatened that any
cease-fire agreement will end Iran’s
financial and military support of Hamas.
Besides diverting attention
from its nuclear program, Iran wants to prolong
the fighting in the hope of winning the type
of public relations victory over Israel it
believes it achieved in Lebanon.
The Iranians believe that Israel’s
international standing will suffer from the
bad publicity it receives as casualty figures
mount, and hope the Muslim world can
be mobilized against Israel.
If in the end Hamas can claim
victory, it will enhance Iranian
prestige in the Arab world.
During the Cold War, Henry
Kissinger understood it was vital that
Israel, as America’s ally, defeat the clients
of the Soviet Union. This showed the Arabs
that aligning with the Soviets would not
help them achieve their aims. It also demonstrated
the superiority of American weapons and
the value of friendship with the United
States.
The Gaza
war represents a similar opportunity
to show the Arab world that
it is far better for them to be aligned
with the United States than Iran, that
radical Islam is not on the march and that
the spread of Iranian influence can be
retarded.
This is why U.S. support
for Operation
Cast Lead is so vital. If America backs
Israel’s demands for ending the war,
it will strengthen the anti-Iranian forces
throughout the region.
The Iranian government
does not want to see any deal in Gaza that
restricts its ability to send weapons
and money to Hamas. Israel understands this
must be prevented or its troops will inevitably
be forced to return to Gaza again. A cease-fire
must guarantee an end to weapons smuggling.
As in Lebanon,
the people are the principal victims of the
Iranian agenda and the terrorist tactics
they support. Hamas, like Hizballah,
put its own interests and the lives of its
leaders ahead of the welfare of the people
around them and has brought them only misery.
The lives of the Palestinians
in Gaza will only improve when they resolve
to say no to terror and yes to peace, reject
the radicalism of Hamas and support new leaders
who are interested in negotiating a two-state
solution with Israel.
Palestinians also will not
be safe if Iran is allowed to obtain a nuclear
weapon. The former president of Iran, Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani, explicitly said he wasn’t
concerned about fallout from an attack on
Israel. “If
a day comes when the world of Islam is duly
equipped with the arms Israel has in [its]
possession,” he
said “the strategy of colonialism would
face a stalemate because application of an
atomic bomb would not leave anything in
Israel....” As
one Iranian commentator noted, Rafsanjani
apparently wasn’t concerned that “the
destruction of the Jewish State would also
mean the mass killing of the Palestinian
population as well” (Iran Press Service,
December 14, 2001).
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