The Threat from North Korea
(Updated February 2003)
North Korea is one of the world's leading weapons
proliferators, enthusiastically selling its technology to rogue nations
for money to prop up its economy and finance the development of its
weapons systems.
North Korea has supplied missiles and built missile
production facilities for Iran, Syria, Libya,
and Egypt. Syria, for example,
purchased complete Scuds and production equipment from North Korea,
and Pyongyang has been engaged in joint missile development with Egypt
for two decades.
Iran is North Korea's principal customer for weapons
and technology, and it has been the site of a number of missile tests
carried out on North Korea's behalf. North Korea may have sold one of
its most sophisticated missiles, the Nodong, which has the capability
of carrying nuclear weapons more than 750 miles, to Iran. Meanwhile,
the Shahab-3 missile under development in Iran — with a range
of 800 miles — is reportedly based on the Nodong. North Korean
experts are also believed to have supervised the installation of centrifuge
equipment that can be used by the Iranians to enrich uranium.
More worrisome even than the missile transfers is the
threat of the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. According
to the Defense Department, Pyongyang can produce large quantities of
nerve, blister, and chemical warfare agents. These could be sold to
rogue nations and/or terrorists.
North Korea could export plutonium from its nuclear
weapons program, as well as weapon design data, to Iran and other Middle
East nations willing to pay for it. If the Koreans produce nuclear bombs,
they could stockpile enough to have a surplus for sale to the highest
bidders.
Today, North Korea is reportedly offering countries
such as Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen a more accurate version of the Scud B missile, which has a range of
nearly 200 miles.
U.S. options for containing or eliminating North Korea
are limited. An Osirak-type attack on North Korean nuclear facilities would be difficult because
they are well-defended, we’re not sure where all the nuclear materials
are located, and the weapons program is probably conducted in multiple
locations.
The North Koreans have threatened, and most experts
take them at their word, that they will respond to any attack with an
all-out war against the South, which might also include the firing of
missiles at Japan. Even if the Koreans’ nuclear capability could
be eliminated, Saddam Hussein has shown that this is not a permanent solution, only a temporary one.
Striking against North Korea’s nuclear facilities
would not have any impact on missile proliferation or possible transfers
of biological and chemical weapons.
An effort to disarm the North Korean regime would likely
require an all-out war in which U.S. forces would face a well-armed,
determined force capable of inflicting hundreds of thousands of casualties
on our forces and South Korea's civilian population.
Other than military action, another option is to use
economic aid and trade as a means to discourage North Korea from selling
its weapons. This has not worked to date.
The U.S., Israel,
and other allies could take more aggressive steps to interdict shipments
of missiles and nonconventional weapons, but this is exceedingly difficult
and still could trigger a massive response by the North Koreans against
their neighbors. There’s also nothing that can be done to stop
the exchange of technical know-how.
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