Can Abbas Deliver?
(Updated January 2005)
Israel, the United
States and most of the international community were pleased by the election of Mahmoud Abbas as President
of the Palestinian Authority (PA).
Israeli Prime Minister Sharon immediately congratulated Abbas and announced plans to meet with him.
Even before this, high-level meetings have begun between the top advisers
of both men and security cooperation has been renewed.
Expectations are high that Abbas can radically alter the policies of his predecessor, consolidate his
power, reform the Palestinian Authority,
and put an end to more than four years of senseless violence that has
claimed too many innocent lives.
Abbas had a previous opportunity to deliver when he was appointed Prime Minister
in 2003. He failed on all counts at that time, but most observers attributed
this to the fact that Yasser
Arafat retained ultimate control over the PA and Abbas was little
more than a figurehead. Now, Abbas has no excuses.
No one should have any illusions about Abbas.
He was the number two person in the PLO and a founder of the Fatah terrorist organization. It is possible to find many irredentist statements
made in the past by the new President, some of which were uttered during
his recent campaign. His uncompromising
position on the “right of return” of Palestinian
refugees, for example, bodes ill for negotiations. On the other
hand, he was one of the Palestinian architects of the Oslo
accords. He also demonstrated courage by criticizing the intifada,
saying that violence has not helped the Palestinian cause, and declaring
a readiness to make peace with Israel.
The first days of his regime were not encouraging,
as mortars continued to be fired into Israel,
and two terrorist attacks were perpetrated (one of which killed six
Israeli civilians, two of whom were Arabs). These acts either were direct
challenges to his leadership or an indication that Abbas has not abandoned the two-track policy of Arafat,
namely, to talk about peace with the Western media while orchestrating
a terror campaign against Israel.
Abbas has subsequently taken more aggressive steps to consolidate his power.
He has been negotiating with Hamas to achieve a cease-fire. He ordered Palestinian security forces to stop
attacks by Palestinian militants on Israelis and he sent a police contingent
to the Gaza Strip to impose
order. He also declared that only policemen and security personnel will
be allowed to carry weapons.
Coexistence is impossible unless Palestinian violence
stops. There can be no attacks on Jews anywhere, no mortars fired into
Israel, and no incitement to violence. This is not a case of giving
extremists a veto over negotiations; Israel has not said that Abbas must stop 100 percent of the incidents before it will talk, but Israel
does insist that he demonstrate a 100 percent effort to stop them.
The media has created the false perception that the
“militants” cannot be stopped because of their numbers.
While it is true that the Islamic terrorist
groups enjoy broad popular support, mainly in the Gaza
Strip, the actual number of forces under arms is estimated to be
no more than 1,500. Moreover, the terrorists’ identities and locations
are known. The PA has an estimated
40,000 policemen and multiple security services. If Abbas is serious about establishing control of the PA,
for the sake of his own authority and legitimacy, as well as to fulfill
the road map commitments,
he must use the resources at his command to disarm and arrest anyone
who illegally possesses weapons and threatens or engages in violence.
Israel is being
asked to make gestures to help Abbas;
however, Israel owes him nothing. It is Abbas who must show that he has both the will and ability to reform the PA,
to dismantle the terrorist networks, and to end the violence. Words
are insufficient; he must take action. The agreements signed by the Palestinians are unequivocal about what is required of
them; they cannot evade their responsibilities with conciliatory statements
to the press in English or cease-fires with groups such as Hamas that remain committed to Israel’s destruction.
Though it has no obligation to do so, Israel has taken steps to show its goodwill, including facilitating the Palestinian elections (which international
observers reported were unfettered by Israel),
releasing prisoners, and withdrawing troops from parts of the territories. Israel has also said it is prepared
to negotiate the disengagement rather than act unilaterally. A unity government was formed in January
2005 that now includes the Labor
Party, which increases the flexibility Sharon will have to negotiate in the future.
Abbas has made a number of positive statements about ending violence and confiscating
illegal weapons. We will know very quickly if he is serious. If within
the next three months his deeds match his words, and violence is significantly
reduced, it will indeed be possible to advance the peace
process. If, however, he once again lacks either the will or the
capability to control the PA, Israel will have to proceed with
its disengagement and
hope that another Palestinian leader emerges in the future with the
courage and vision to make peace.
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