Hezbollah One
Year After the Lebanon War
(Updated September 2007)
On the first anniversary of the end of the
2006 Israel-Hezbollah
War, Hezbollah secretary-general
Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel of a “big
surprise.” While the nature of the
promised surprise is unclear, analysts agree
that Hezbollah is preparing for another confrontation.
Though Hezbollah appeared to have been weakened
politically and militarily by the war, the
group’s survival was viewed as an achievement
and, for some, a victory.
Israel had limited success in eliminating
Hezbollah’s arsenal of short-range
Katyusha rockets, which were still hitting
Israel in large numbers at the end of the
war. The group’s long-range rockets
were successfully destroyed, however, which
represented one of the major achievements
of the IDF.
A year later, despite the presence of a
much larger UNIFIL contingent in Southern
Lebanon tasked with preventing Hezbollah from rebuilding its forces, reports indicate
that Hezbollah has replaced the weapons it
lost and may now have an even larger arsenal
than before the war.
Hezbollah leaders have boasted that their
arms stocks have grown since last summer’s
war and Israeli sources suggest the terrorists
may have nearly twice the number of rockets
they had a year ago. According to Israeli
Defense Minister Ehud
Barak, Hezbollah now
possesses approximately 20,000 short and
long range rockets and is receiving advanced
anti-tank missiles from Syria. Iran and Syria have also transferred new rockets to Hezbollah capable of reaching central Israel
Iran is also aiding Hezbollah organized
reconstruction projects aimed, in part, at
demonstrating that the Shiite organization,
rather than the Lebanese
government, can
best respond to the needs of the people.
Part of the rebuilding effort is taking
place beyond the jurisdiction of UNIFIL.
It is designed to establish a defensive line
north of the Litani River, behind which Hezbollah can prepare for the next round against Israel.
The UN reported that the Syrian-Lebanese
border is wide open to weapons transports.
Although 8,000 Lebanese soldiers are deployed
along the border with Syria, they all lack
the training and equipment to successfully
thwart arms smuggling.
Meanwhile, the International
Lebanese Committee for UN
Security Council Resolution 1559 revealed that Syria is still
occupying at least 177 square miles (about
4%) of Lebanese soil.
|